College Football Coaching Carousel Shaped by Hefty Buyouts for Lincoln Riley and Deion Sanders
Massive buyout clauses for coaches like Lincoln Riley and Deion Sanders are dictating the movement within the college football coaching market.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 50% |
| 12 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 52% |
| 11 Oct, 21:43 UTC | 48% |
| 11 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 49% |
| 11 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 40% |
| 10 Oct, 20:47 UTC | 36% |
| 7 Oct, 19:35 UTC | 58% |
| 7 Oct, 19:06 UTC | 45% |
| 7 Oct, 17:52 UTC | 60% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 49% |
| 5 Oct, 00:05 UTC | 38% |
| 4 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 64% |
| 4 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 62% |
| 4 Oct, 01:14 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Oct, 20:17 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Oct, 19:49 UTC | 43% |
| 3 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 73% |
| 1 Oct, 19:19 UTC | 40% |
| 1 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Oct, 17:22 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 37% |
| 30 Sept, 20:31 UTC | 33% |
| 29 Sept, 23:23 UTC | 36% |
| 29 Sept, 22:45 UTC | 35% |
| 29 Sept, 22:10 UTC | 64% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 34% |
| 29 Sept, 17:57 UTC | 64% |
| 29 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 28% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 26% |
| 27 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 69% |
| 27 Sept, 03:06 UTC | 70% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 57% |
| 22 Sept, 20:37 UTC | 21% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 9 Oct 2026. www.espn.com published first, on 9 October at 02:32 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Lincoln Riley — the market puts it at 50%, with $125 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Feb 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Lincoln Riley leaves his position as USC's head coach or announces he will leave before February 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the date of a news report about potential interest for the actual announcement deadline.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Lincoln Riley 50% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Lincoln Riley
- Deion Sanders