China's Rise in Science to Reshape Global Power and Innovation
A Nature report states China is on a trajectory to lead the world in science, reshaping technological advancement and global power dynamics.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 21% |
| 15 Oct, 19:09 UTC | 21% |
| 12 Oct, 06:51 UTC | 13% |
| 12 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 16% |
| 12 Oct, 03:37 UTC | 13% |
| 12 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 16% |
| 11 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 13% |
| 11 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 16% |
| 9 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 14% |
| 6 Oct, 00:03 UTC | 18% |
| 5 Oct, 01:54 UTC | 17% |
| 5 Oct, 00:11 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 14% |
| 4 Oct, 06:46 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Oct, 14:05 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 18:33 UTC | 15% |
| 30 Sept, 02:28 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Sept, 00:10 UTC | 16% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 14% |
| 28 Sept, 10:44 UTC | 13% |
| 28 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 15% |
| 28 Sept, 02:41 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Sept, 13:29 UTC | 15% |
| 27 Sept, 08:08 UTC | 19% |
| 27 Sept, 04:52 UTC | 17% |
| 27 Sept, 03:06 UTC | 18% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 20% |
| 26 Sept, 06:32 UTC | 18% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 16:04 UTC | 17% |
| 25 Sept, 04:56 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Sept, 17:11 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 14:40 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Sept, 14:24 UTC | 17% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 2 articles since 14 Oct 2026. Nature published first, on 14 October at 00:00 UTC. The most recent article, from Nature, appeared on 14 October at 00:00 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- By 2030 — the market puts it at 21%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2030. The market resolves to Yes if China's gross domestic product exceeds that of the United States by the year 2030. It resolves to No if China's GDP does not surpass the US total within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story about rare earth processing for the actual resolution criteria, but only GDP figures determine the outcome.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi By 2030 21% +8
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