CFP Bubble Watch Examines Kentucky and UCLA Playoff Contention
A conference-by-conference analysis evaluates which teams are contending for the College Football Playoff, including those close to the bubble.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 36% |
| 15 Oct, 05:34 UTC | 36% |
| 15 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 39% |
| 14 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 38% |
| 14 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 35% |
| 14 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 36% |
| 14 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 37% |
| 14 Oct, 17:32 UTC | 36% |
| 14 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 33% |
| 14 Oct, 15:39 UTC | 36% |
| 14 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 35% |
| 14 Oct, 01:08 UTC | 32% |
| 13 Oct, 23:53 UTC | 35% |
| 13 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 34% |
| 13 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 36% |
| 13 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 35% |
| 13 Oct, 15:50 UTC | 37% |
| 13 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 36% |
| 13 Oct, 10:51 UTC | 35% |
| 13 Oct, 08:14 UTC | 33% |
| 13 Oct, 03:54 UTC | 35% |
| 13 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 34% |
| 13 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 33% |
| 13 Oct, 01:08 UTC | 32% |
| 13 Oct, 00:01 UTC | 34% |
| 12 Oct, 22:47 UTC | 32% |
| 12 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 33% |
| 12 Oct, 20:42 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 29% |
| 12 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 28% |
| 12 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 25% |
| 12 Oct, 17:12 UTC | 47% |
| 12 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 45% |
| 12 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 47% |
| 12 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 46% |
| 12 Oct, 13:02 UTC | 47% |
| 12 Oct, 11:46 UTC | 48% |
| 12 Oct, 07:47 UTC | 49% |
| 12 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 50% |
| 12 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 49% |
| 12 Oct, 04:16 UTC | 50% |
| 12 Oct, 03:37 UTC | 48% |
| 12 Oct, 03:18 UTC | 49% |
| 12 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 50% |
| 11 Oct, 23:17 UTC | 48% |
| 11 Oct, 21:06 UTC | 45% |
| 11 Oct, 20:34 UTC | 37% |
| 11 Oct, 19:33 UTC | 51% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 43% |
| 11 Oct, 17:48 UTC | 52% |
| 11 Oct, 16:15 UTC | 53% |
| 11 Oct, 15:58 UTC | 51% |
| 11 Oct, 14:42 UTC | 54% |
| 11 Oct, 14:02 UTC | 53% |
| 11 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 53% |
| 11 Oct, 08:06 UTC | 45% |
| 11 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 41% |
| 11 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 47% |
| 11 Oct, 05:23 UTC | 50% |
| 11 Oct, 04:53 UTC | 45% |
| 11 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 47% |
| 11 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 46% |
| 11 Oct, 02:24 UTC | 49% |
| 11 Oct, 01:46 UTC | 54% |
| 11 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 55% |
| 10 Oct, 00:09 UTC | 22% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 13 Oct 2026. www.espn.com published first, on 13 October at 11:33 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- UCLA — the market puts it at 36%, with $840 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 29 Dec 2026. The market resolves to Yes if UCLA qualifies for the College Football Playoffs. It resolves to No if UCLA does not qualify. Readers often mistake a single game win, like beating Oregon, as sufficient for qualification.
- Kentucky — the market puts it at 8%, closing 25 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Kentucky reaches the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake reaching the playoff semifinals for qualifying for the championship game.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi UCLA 36% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Kentucky 8%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Kentucky
- UCLA