China
Implied probability 6%+5
24-hour volume$25
Total volume$35k
Liquidity$35k
Resolves31 Dec 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 31 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 6% |
| 27 Oct, 07:44 UTC | 1% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if China records two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between January 1, 2024, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the start date for the beginning of 2025.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 94%