At least 12 weeks
Implied probability 20%+5
24-hour volume$117
Total volume$9k
Liquidity$9k
Resolves26 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 13 Oct, 17:07 UTC | 20% |
| 12 Oct, 22:27 UTC | 29% |
| 12 Oct, 05:00 UTC | 15% |
| 11 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 24% |
| 9 Oct, 11:22 UTC | 7% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Taylor Swift holds the number one spot on the Billboard Hot 100 for a total of at least 12 weeks during 2026. It resolves to No if she does not reach that threshold within that year. Readers often mistake the requirement for consecutive weeks, but the rule counts any weeks spent at the top position.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 80%