Before Jan 1, 2027
Why it moved: +7 points at 09:22 UTC, after Washington Post Business: The chart that inspired California’s billionaire tax campaign — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 32% |
| 24 Sept, 09:22 UTC | 32% |
| 23 Sept, 08:46 UTC | 25% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if California's 2026 billionaire tax becomes legally operative between now and January 1, 2027. It is No if the tax does not become legally operative within that window. Readers often mistake the news story about the campaign for proof that the tax is already in effect.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 32%
- No 68%