At least 50%
Implied probability 19%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 19% |
| 4 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 19% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Juan Ciscomani receives at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Arizona-06 House election, based on the certified official results. It resolves to No if he receives less than 50%. Readers often mistake early polling or unofficial returns for the final certified count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 19%
- No 81%