At least 58%
Implied probability 27%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 27% |
| 3 Oct, 08:23 UTC | 27% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Abdul El-Sayed receives at least 58% of the popular vote in Oakland County during the 2026 U.S. Senate election. The outcome depends on the certified percentage from that specific county, not the statewide results or campaign activities. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the certification date.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 27%
- No 73%