At least 49%
The market favoured Yes at 94% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Final probability 3%
24-hour volume$14k
Total volume$26k
Liquidity$26k
Resolved25 Oct 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 26 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 3% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro receives at least 49% of the certified popular vote in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. It resolves to No if he receives less than 49%. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election day itself, but the resolution depends on the final certified vote count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%