At least 3
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 29 Oct, 07:11 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if three or more VEI-4 volcanic eruptions occur globally with a GVP-attributed start date in 2026. It resolves to No if fewer than three such eruptions happen during that year. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Mayon Volcano as the sole determining factor, but the resolution depends on the total global count of VEI-4 events, not just this single eruption.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%