Before 2030
Implied probability 35%+4
24-hour volume$1
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$10k
Resolves1 Jan 2030
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 35% |
| 1 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 35% |
| 29 Sept, 15:41 UTC | 31% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. government takes operational control of any private AI company or project before January 1, 2030. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked story about revenue requirements for the actual resolution criteria.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 35%
- No 65%