Yes
Implied probability 21%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 21% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 21% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the United States agrees to or announces recognition of Argentina’s sovereignty over the Falkland Islands before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the deadline for the date of the announcement rather than the date of US recognition.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 21%
- No 79%