Before Nov 1, 2026
Implied probability 36%−14
24-hour volume$616
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 36% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 36% |
| 6 Oct, 00:40 UTC | 50% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump announces a new or increased tariff on Canadian imports with a specific effective date between now and November 1, 2026. The outcome is No if no such official announcement occurs by that deadline. Readers often mistake general trade tensions or existing tariffs for the required new presidential action.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 36%
- No 64%