TSMC
Implied probability 15%
24-hour volume$329
Total volume$27k
Liquidity$27k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 15% |
| 4 Oct, 23:45 UTC | 15% |
| 4 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Oct, 22:02 UTC | 14% |
| 1 Oct, 19:34 UTC | 12% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 17% |
| 30 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 14% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the U.S. federal government acquires any ownership stake in TSMC before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake this deadline for a date when TSMC must announce plans or complete construction, but only actual equity acquisition by the federal government counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 15%
- No 85%