Eli Lilly
Implied probability 7%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$12k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 05:29 UTC | 7% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the U.S. federal government takes any financial stake in Eli Lilly before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Novo Nordisk for a relevant event, but only actions by the U.S. federal government regarding Eli Lilly count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 7%
- No 93%