Israel
The market favoured No at 73% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$212k
Total volume$214k
Liquidity$214k
Resolved6 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 15% |
| 4 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 13% |
| 4 Oct, 19:28 UTC | 21% |
| 4 Oct, 18:47 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 22% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 23% |
| 4 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 24% |
| 4 Oct, 15:32 UTC | 26% |
| 4 Oct, 15:25 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 27% |
| 4 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 27% |
| 4 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 27% |
| 4 Oct, 12:19 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Oct, 11:43 UTC | 26% |
| 4 Oct, 11:23 UTC | 27% |
| 4 Oct, 07:38 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 27% |
| 4 Oct, 06:52 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Oct, 05:30 UTC | 27% |
| 4 Oct, 04:45 UTC | 28% |
| 4 Oct, 02:56 UTC | 26% |
| 4 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 25% |
| 4 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Oct, 16:46 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Oct, 13:48 UTC | 26% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Israel wins the UEFA Nations League match against Ireland after 90 minutes of regular play, including stoppage time. It resolves to No if the game ends in a draw or if Ireland wins. Readers often mistakenly include extra time or penalty shootouts when determining the winner.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%