NewsMarkets

Markets

France

Implied probability 68%−15
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves4 Oct 2026

Why it moved: −19 points at 05:53 UTC, after France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines: Nations League: Promising France defeat Belgium thanks to Olise — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · France
0%50%100%68%28 Sept, 05:28 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now68%
29 Sept, 07:48 UTC68%
29 Sept, 06:54 UTC66%
29 Sept, 06:12 UTC76%
29 Sept, 05:53 UTC65%
28 Sept, 05:28 UTC84%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Does the market have this right?

Email me when the odds move

We email a link to confirm first. At most one alert email every six hours; unsubscribe in one click. Privacy

What counts

The market resolves to Yes if France wins the UEFA Nations League match against Italy after 90 minutes of play, including stoppage time. It resolves to No if France does not win within that timeframe. Readers often mistakenly believe that extra time or penalty shootouts count toward the result.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 68%
  • No 32%

Trade this market on Kalshi →

Embed this market

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.

Stories on this market