Democratic Party
Why it moved: +36 points at 02:41 UTC, after The Hill: Democrat Bob Brooks flips Pennsylvania House seat — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 93% |
| 4 Nov, 02:41 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Nov, 02:03 UTC | 23% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if the Democratic Party wins control of the Texas House of Representatives in the 2026 election. The outcome is No if they do not win control. Readers often mistake the linked story about Florida and midterms for the relevant event, but only the 2026 Texas House results matter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 93%
- No 7%