Above 450,000
Implied probability 31%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves31 Jul 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 31% |
| 5 Nov, 11:16 UTC | 31% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tesla reports a total production figure above 450,000 units for the first quarter of 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking the count applies to the entire year or a different quarter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 31%
- No 69%