Above 480000
The market favoured Yes at 70% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$13k
Total volume$24k
Liquidity$24k
Resolved30 Jan 2027
Why it moved: +31 points at 13:55 UTC, after Quartz: Tesla posted 486,532 deliveries in third quarter, beating Wall Street estimates — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 2 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 99% |
| 2 Oct, 12:30 UTC | 68% |
| 1 Oct, 12:11 UTC | 69% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tesla reports more than 480,000 total vehicle deliveries for the third quarter of 2026. It resolves to No if that number is 480,000 or fewer. Readers often mistake the linked news headline about recent US sales trends for the final Q3 2026 data.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%