TSMC / TSM
Implied probability 99%+35
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Nov 2026
Why it moved: +35 points at 08:02 UTC, after Bloomberg Technology: TSMC Open to Working With Terafab But Must Control Plants — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 15 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 99% |
| 14 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 64% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump explicitly mentions TSMC or its possessive form in a statement made between October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET and November 1, 2026, at 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the source of truth, assuming any news report about TSMC counts, but only Trump's own words matter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%