Crypto / Bitcoin
Implied probability 1%−6
24-hour volume$41k
Total volume$50k
Liquidity$50k
Resolves28 Sept 2026
Why it moved: −7 points at 09:57 UTC, after CoinDesk: Bitcoin rally takes a breather ahead of key U.S. employment data: Crypto Week Ahead — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 10:16 UTC | 1% |
| 28 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 16:07 UTC | 10% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump explicitly mentions "Crypto / Bitcoin" in any form after September 21, 2026 at 9:00am ET and before September 28, 2026 at 12:00am ET. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistakenly believe that any general discussion of cryptocurrency or Bitcoin by other individuals counts toward the Yes outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%