Event does not qualify
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$23k
Total volume$23k
Liquidity$23k
Resolved30 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 11:03 UTC | 1% |
| 29 Sept, 10:49 UTC | 0% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if a specific qualifying event fails to happen. It resolves to No only if that event occurs as defined by the rules. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for the resolution criteria, but the story itself does not determine the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%