Iran (2+ times)
The market favoured Yes at 74% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$10k
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$10k
Resolved12 Oct 2026
Why it moved: +99 points at 13:27 UTC, after Just In News: On Iran, Greenland and press access, Trump is more talk than action — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 29 Sept, 13:27 UTC | 99% |
| 27 Sept, 19:03 UTC | 0% |
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%