Melania
Implied probability 49%+11
24-hour volume$19k
Total volume$20k
Liquidity$20k
Resolves8 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 49% |
| 24 Sept, 00:55 UTC | 50% |
| 24 Sept, 00:23 UTC | 48% |
| 23 Sept, 23:55 UTC | 52% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 45% |
| 23 Sept, 22:12 UTC | 42% |
| 22 Sept, 21:59 UTC | 30% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump says Melania during his remarks at Xi Jinping’s state arrival ceremony on September 24, 2026. The outcome is No if he does not say her name in that specific context. Readers often mistake the linked news story for the resolution event, but only the speech at the ceremony counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 49%
- No 51%