Above 36%
Implied probability 78%−3
24-hour volume$85
Total volume$1k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves6 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 78% |
| 4 Nov, 02:34 UTC | 78% |
| 4 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 98% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 99% |
| 3 Nov, 16:04 UTC | 79% |
| 3 Nov, 08:39 UTC | 81% |
| 2 Nov, 18:34 UTC | 70% |
| 2 Nov, 14:03 UTC | 79% |
| 1 Nov, 13:31 UTC | 61% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome depends on whether more than 36% of voters approve of Donald Trump's job performance in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll. The market resolves to Yes if that approval share exceeds 36%, and No otherwise. Readers often mistake this for a standard opinion poll, but it specifically requires data from the official 2026 House exit poll.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 78%
- No 22%