Before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 11%−3
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$86k
Liquidity$86k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 11% |
| 21 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Oct, 13:40 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Oct, 01:03 UTC | 11% |
| 21 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 12% |
| 20 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 13% |
| 20 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 13% |
| 18 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 10% |
| 18 Oct, 13:30 UTC | 11% |
| 18 Oct, 04:04 UTC | 10% |
| 18 Oct, 03:30 UTC | 9% |
| 17 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 13% |
| 17 Oct, 20:05 UTC | 10% |
| 17 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 15% |
| 17 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 13% |
| 17 Oct, 16:02 UTC | 11% |
| 17 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 12% |
| 17 Oct, 14:19 UTC | 16% |
| 17 Oct, 13:09 UTC | 11% |
| 17 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 18% |
| 17 Oct, 05:22 UTC | 8% |
| 16 Oct, 23:02 UTC | 8% |
| 16 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 6% |
| 16 Oct, 18:17 UTC | 8% |
| 16 Oct, 15:45 UTC | 6% |
| 16 Oct, 08:27 UTC | 8% |
| 15 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 6% |
| 15 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Oct, 23:28 UTC | 9% |
| 14 Oct, 19:43 UTC | 9% |
| 14 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 6% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if news reports confirm that at least one million people receive $100 or more from a new federal program before January 1, 2027. The money must come from the Trump administration and be labeled as a dividend, rebate, or similar return of government funds. Readers often mistake any general payment for this specific type of revenue-sharing program.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 11%
- No 89%