NewsMarkets

Markets

Dario Amodei

Implied probability 98%+91
24-hour volume$7k
Total volume$12k
Liquidity$12k
Resolves1 Oct 2026

Why it moved: +85 points at 17:31 UTC, after TechCrunch: Anthropic’s Dario Amodei gets the SNL treatment — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Dario Amodei
0%50%100%98%26 Sept, 17:20 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now98%
27 Sept, 18:20 UTC98%
27 Sept, 17:31 UTC92%
26 Sept, 17:20 UTC7%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Does the market have this right?

Email me when the odds move

We email a link to confirm first. At most one alert email every six hours; unsubscribe in one click. Privacy

What counts

The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump and Dario Amodei meet in person between now and October 1, 2026. The outcome is No if they do not meet within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news story as evidence of a meeting, but only an actual in-person encounter counts.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 98%
  • No 2%

Trade this market on Kalshi →

Embed this market

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.

Stories on this market