Above 10
Implied probability 29%
24-hour volume$51
Total volume$11k
Liquidity$11k
Resolves2 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 29% |
| 27 Sept, 20:29 UTC | 29% |
| 27 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 33% |
| 27 Sept, 03:39 UTC | 29% |
| 26 Sept, 18:34 UTC | 33% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 08:12 UTC | 32% |
| 25 Sept, 13:46 UTC | 31% |
| 25 Sept, 09:37 UTC | 28% |
| 25 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 29% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 24% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 22% |
| 22 Sept, 20:40 UTC | 24% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 10 storms with maximum sustained windspeeds of 39 miles per hour or above between January 1, 2026 and December 1, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the end date as December 31, but the official window closes on December 1.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 29%
- No 71%