Meta
Why it moved: +3 points at 20:25 UTC, after Bloomberg.com: AI Riches Come With Concentration Risks (ARM, AKAM, SNPS, P) — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 11% |
| 4 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 11% |
| 4 Oct, 14:52 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 8% |
| 3 Oct, 12:49 UTC | 10% |
| 3 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Oct, 20:31 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 7% |
| 2 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Oct, 05:05 UTC | 12% |
| 2 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 9% |
| 2 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 13% |
| 1 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 15% |
| 1 Oct, 00:08 UTC | 14% |
| 30 Sept, 07:58 UTC | 13% |
| 30 Sept, 00:10 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Sept, 06:22 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 13% |
| 28 Sept, 06:36 UTC | 11% |
| 28 Sept, 06:24 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Sept, 00:14 UTC | 10% |
| 27 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 7% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Meta launches an AI model that ranks number one in app stores before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if this does not happen by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a specific agent for the final resolution, but only the official ranking status and deadline matter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 11%
- No 89%