Above 500000 in a single quarter
Implied probability 56%−1
24-hour volume$315
Total volume$99k
Liquidity$99k
Resolves1 Apr 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 56% |
| 29 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 56% |
| 28 Sept, 20:56 UTC | 57% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tesla delivers more than 500,000 vehicles in any single quarter between Q1 2025 and Q4 2026. It resolves to No if the company fails to hit this delivery threshold within that specific timeframe. Readers often mistake the start date for Q1 2024 or assume the deadline extends beyond Q4 2026.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 56%
- No 44%