Before Oct 1, 2026
Why it moved: +49 points at 02:18 UTC, after Bloomberg.com: Xi in Washington, US-China Trade Truce Extended, More — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 70% |
| 24 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 69% |
| 24 Sept, 02:18 UTC | 90% |
| 23 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 41% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the United States and China publicly announce or confirm a new mutual tariff agreement between now and October 1, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked headline's January 10 date for the final deadline, but the actual cutoff is October 1, 2026.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 70%
- No 30%