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Magdalena Andersson

Implied probability 74%−11
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$53k
Liquidity$53k
Resolves1 Jan 2028

Why it moved: −12 points at 10:35 UTC, after South China Morning Post: Sweden’s Magdalena Andersson ends government-formation talks with no result — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Magdalena Andersson
0%50%100%74%27 Sept, 09:35 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now74%
28 Sept, 11:26 UTC74%
28 Sept, 10:35 UTC73%
27 Sept, 09:35 UTC85%

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What counts

The outcome is Yes if Magdalena Andersson becomes Prime Minister of Sweden after the 2026 election and meets all constitutional requirements before January 1, 2028. The outcome is No if she does not assume the role within that timeframe or fails to meet the requirements. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the government formation talks rather than the final date of January 1, 2028.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 74%
  • No 26%

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