Will Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?
Why it moved: +7 points at 22:17 UTC, after RSS 2.0: Judge tosses sexual abuse lawsuit from Sam Altman's sister — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 27% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 27% |
| 19 Oct, 20:39 UTC | 20% |
Your call. How does this end?
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Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Sam Altman retains voting rights in his OpenAI shares that exceed those granted to public investors after the company goes public. It resolves to No if he does not hold such super-voting shares at that time. Readers often mistake the dismissal of a lawsuit for proof of share structure, but only the actual terms of the IPO matter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 27%
- No 73%