Proposition 317
The market favoured Yes at 81% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$8k
Total volume$21k
Liquidity$21k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 14:01 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 09:57 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 05:31 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Nov, 05:19 UTC | 89% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Arizona voters approve Proposition 317 and it becomes law. The outcome depends on the final official election results certified by state authorities. Readers often mistake the initial media reports of victory for the actual resolution, which requires the formal certification of the vote count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%