Above 160
Implied probability 5%
24-hour volume$3
Total volume$179k
Liquidity$179k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 11:48 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if SpaceX completes more than 160 launches during 2026. The outcome is No if SpaceX completes 160 or fewer launches in that year. Readers often mistake the launch count for any other year or confuse the deadline with the end of the calendar year rather than the specific count threshold.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%