Lil Nas X
Implied probability 99%+16
24-hour volume$967
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves8 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 1 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 99% |
| 1 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 97% |
| 30 Sept, 15:12 UTC | 98% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Lil Nas X releases a new song in 2026. It resolves to No if he does not release a new song during that year. Readers often mistake the linked news story as the resolution event, but only a full song release in 2026 counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%