Above 10
Implied probability 4%−1
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$51k
Liquidity$51k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 00:24 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if more than 10 New World screwworm infestation cases are reported in the United States during 2026. It resolves to No if 10 or fewer cases occur. Readers often mistake the single Texas case for a total count, but only the aggregate number of US cases matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%