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Clarence Thomas

Implied probability 52%+5
24-hour volume$2
Total volume$36k
Liquidity$36k
Resolves20 Jan 2029

Why it moved: +5 points at 14:06 UTC, after Just In News: The legacy of Clarence Thomas will be declining trust in the Supreme Court — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Clarence Thomas
0%50%100%52%27 Sept, 13:30 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now52%
28 Sept, 14:06 UTC52%
27 Sept, 13:30 UTC47%

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What counts

The outcome is Yes if Clarence Thomas resigns or announces his intent to resign from the Supreme Court before January 20, 2029. The outcome is No if he does not take either action by that date. Readers often mistake the announcement deadline for the actual resignation date.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 52%
  • No 48%

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