Above 46000
Implied probability 93%+1
24-hour volume$150
Total volume$15k
Liquidity$15k
Resolves31 Mar 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 93% |
| 2 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 93% |
| 1 Oct, 13:26 UTC | 92% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Rivian delivers more than 46,000 total vehicles in 2026. It resolves to No if the company delivers 46,000 or fewer vehicles that year. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the calendar year rather than the specific delivery count threshold.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 93%
- No 7%