Donald Trump
Implied probability 5%−3
24-hour volume$7k
Total volume$1.2M
Liquidity$1.2M
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 28 Oct, 14:35 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 6% |
| 26 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 7% |
| 26 Oct, 03:06 UTC | 6% |
| 25 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 7% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump ranks as the number one person searched for on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global list. The outcome is No if he does not hold that top spot. Readers often mistake the linked Halloween costume article for the relevant data source, but only the official Year in Search results count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%