Mark Kelly
Implied probability 4%
24-hour volume$5k
Total volume$8.0M
Liquidity$8.0M
Resolves7 Nov 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 4 Oct, 15:19 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 4% |
| 3 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 20:11 UTC | 4% |
| 2 Oct, 17:37 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Oct, 19:12 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 4% |
| 1 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Mark Kelly wins and accepts the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028. It resolves to No otherwise. Readers often mistake this for a prediction of his election victory rather than just securing the party's nomination.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%