Gavin Newsom
Implied probability 14%
24-hour volume$18k
Total volume$10.3M
Liquidity$10.3M
Resolves7 Nov 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 23:08 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 22:53 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 20:17 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 18:56 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 17:02 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 16:47 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 15:38 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 11:02 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 10:41 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 05:54 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 04:30 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 03:00 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 02:38 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 02:18 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 01:51 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 01:27 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 00:48 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 23:48 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 22:48 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Sept, 22:12 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Sept, 17:25 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 16:49 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 16:19 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Sept, 09:28 UTC | 14% |
| 23 Sept, 07:59 UTC | 13% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 13% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028. The outcome is No if he does not win or accept that nomination. Readers often mistake the signing of state laws for acceptance of a national party nomination.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 14%
- No 86%