Austin Smotherman
The market favoured Yes at 93% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 99%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Why it moved: +5 points at 02:40 UTC, after www.espn.com: Smotherman captures first PGA Tour title in 100th career start — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 99% |
| 5 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 94% |
Outcomes
- Yes 99%
- No 1%