Matt McCarty
The market favoured No at 87% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 1%
24-hour volume$355
Total volume$37k
Liquidity$37k
Resolved1 Nov 2026
Why it moved: −34 points at 02:40 UTC, after www.espn.com: Smotherman captures first PGA Tour title in 100th career start — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 5 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 05:40 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Sept, 16:09 UTC | 31% |
| 29 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 28% |
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%