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Project Hail Mary

Implied probability 61%−4
24-hour volume$21
Total volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves31 Dec 2027

Why it moved: −4 points at 07:35 UTC, after Variety: Ryan Gosling’s Zero-G Stunts on ‘Project Hail Mary’ Broken Down by the Space Epic’s VFX Supervisors — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Project Hail Mary
0%50%100%61%17 Oct, 06:44 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now61%
18 Oct, 07:35 UTC61%
17 Oct, 06:44 UTC65%

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What counts

The outcome is Yes if the film receives a nomination for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the release date or award wins for the resolution criteria, but only the official nomination list matters.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 61%
  • No 39%

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