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Matt Damon

Implied probability 89%−3
24-hour volume$162
Total volume$32k
Liquidity$32k
Resolves31 Dec 2027

Why it moved: −3 points at 12:40 UTC, after The Hollywood Reporter: Casey Affleck on Matt Damon Rivalry, a Chris Nolan Phone Call and Being a Proud “Hollywood Outsider” — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Matt Damon
0%50%100%89%27 Sept, 12:17 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now89%
28 Sept, 12:40 UTC89%
27 Sept, 12:17 UTC92%

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Matt Damon receives a nomination for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this outcome for whether he wins the award rather than just being nominated.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 89%
  • No 11%

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