Christopher Luxon
Implied probability 85%−4
24-hour volume$71
Total volume$14k
Liquidity$14k
Resolves7 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 85% |
| 10 Nov, 19:46 UTC | 85% |
| 10 Nov, 17:29 UTC | 87% |
| 10 Nov, 15:43 UTC | 86% |
| 10 Nov, 15:03 UTC | 88% |
| 10 Nov, 13:36 UTC | 89% |
| 10 Nov, 04:42 UTC | 87% |
| 10 Nov, 00:32 UTC | 86% |
| 9 Nov, 17:50 UTC | 88% |
| 9 Nov, 13:05 UTC | 93% |
| 9 Nov, 02:06 UTC | 87% |
| 9 Nov, 01:02 UTC | 89% |
| 8 Nov, 22:59 UTC | 85% |
| 8 Nov, 20:37 UTC | 78% |
| 8 Nov, 19:09 UTC | 79% |
| 8 Nov, 18:36 UTC | 78% |
| 8 Nov, 17:50 UTC | 84% |
| 8 Nov, 10:35 UTC | 83% |
| 8 Nov, 10:28 UTC | 82% |
| 8 Nov, 08:38 UTC | 37% |
| 8 Nov, 05:32 UTC | 83% |
| 8 Nov, 05:10 UTC | 86% |
| 8 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 84% |
| 8 Nov, 04:16 UTC | 82% |
| 8 Nov, 03:35 UTC | 74% |
| 8 Nov, 02:07 UTC | 96% |
| 8 Nov, 01:54 UTC | 84% |
| 8 Nov, 00:52 UTC | 85% |
| 8 Nov, 00:01 UTC | 75% |
| 7 Nov, 23:55 UTC | 81% |
| 7 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 83% |
| 7 Nov, 22:29 UTC | 81% |
| 7 Nov, 21:35 UTC | 78% |
| 7 Nov, 21:01 UTC | 85% |
| 7 Nov, 20:55 UTC | 79% |
| 7 Nov, 20:07 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 86% |
| 7 Nov, 19:13 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 87% |
| 7 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Nov, 16:50 UTC | 88% |
| 7 Nov, 16:21 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Nov, 15:46 UTC | 84% |
| 7 Nov, 15:10 UTC | 88% |
| 7 Nov, 14:41 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Nov, 14:20 UTC | 88% |
| 7 Nov, 13:40 UTC | 82% |
| 7 Nov, 13:19 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Nov, 12:58 UTC | 84% |
| 7 Nov, 12:24 UTC | 83% |
| 7 Nov, 11:38 UTC | 81% |
| 7 Nov, 11:24 UTC | 84% |
| 7 Nov, 10:55 UTC | 83% |
| 7 Nov, 10:11 UTC | 65% |
| 7 Nov, 09:51 UTC | 80% |
| 7 Nov, 09:24 UTC | 64% |
| 7 Nov, 08:43 UTC | 53% |
| 7 Nov, 08:15 UTC | 45% |
| 7 Nov, 07:48 UTC | 39% |
| 7 Nov, 07:28 UTC | 57% |
| 7 Nov, 06:53 UTC | 74% |
| 7 Nov, 06:19 UTC | 63% |
| 7 Nov, 05:37 UTC | 55% |
| 7 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 62% |
| 7 Nov, 03:52 UTC | 60% |
| 7 Nov, 02:02 UTC | 63% |
| 7 Nov, 01:34 UTC | 62% |
| 7 Nov, 00:30 UTC | 63% |
| 7 Nov, 00:01 UTC | 62% |
| 6 Nov, 23:33 UTC | 61% |
| 6 Nov, 23:19 UTC | 60% |
| 6 Nov, 21:59 UTC | 56% |
| 6 Nov, 21:01 UTC | 62% |
| 6 Nov, 20:17 UTC | 61% |
| 6 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 63% |
| 6 Nov, 17:57 UTC | 56% |
| 6 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 61% |
| 6 Nov, 16:43 UTC | 55% |
| 6 Nov, 16:20 UTC | 59% |
| 6 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 56% |
| 6 Nov, 14:41 UTC | 57% |
| 6 Nov, 13:56 UTC | 56% |
| 6 Nov, 07:31 UTC | 51% |
| 6 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 52% |
| 5 Nov, 22:47 UTC | 55% |
| 5 Nov, 07:09 UTC | 50% |
| 5 Nov, 05:09 UTC | 49% |
| 5 Nov, 02:10 UTC | 50% |
| 5 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 51% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Christopher Luxon becomes Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 general election and meets all constitutional requirements before November 7, 2027. The outcome is No if he does not become Prime Minister under these conditions. Readers often mistake the deadline for when he must be elected rather than when he must meet constitutional requirements.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 85%
- No 15%