Yes
Implied probability 13%
24-hour volume$73
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 13% |
| 4 Oct, 08:45 UTC | 13% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. Department of Justice announces a fine or monetary penalty against Nvidia regarding the Groq licensing deal before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if no such announcement occurs by that deadline. Readers often mistake the source of truth, thinking any legal action counts, but only penalties from the DOJ are valid.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 13%
- No 87%