Sean Parnell
Implied probability 4%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves8 Jan 2030
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 10:53 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Sean Parnell formally holds the position of Secretary of the Army before January 1, 2030, and is the first person to do so after the market's issuance date. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story for a confirmation of his appointment, but only the formal holding of the office counts toward resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%